I’m just spitballing and trying something new here. I have always loved sports betting but never have been careful about tracking my bets, and always end up doing something dumb. This $70 to $700 series is to hold myself accountable so I stop wasting all of my accounts on “fuck it” bets where I end up draining my account. I will do research on these picks before games start that way I’m not just looking at the board five minutes before a game starts and just betting on a number that I think I like. These will be heavily props mostly with a few sides and game totals sprinkled in periodically. Props just seem to be a bit more transparent and less variable. These are not advice and betting is not guaranteed money, so either tail or fade my dumbass, but do so responsibly.
It’s a small NBA board tonight with yet another stinky Thursday night NFL game. However, I think there is value on the board tonight, with these six picks.
Start of the Day Total: $71.77
- Anfernee Simons U22.5 Points: 5 to win 9.65: Simons has been great this year, but Lillard is back from injury, so Simons won’t have the ball in his hands as much tonight. In games with Lillard, he is averaging 21.1 points, as opposed to 29 in games without Lillard. The Nuggets defense isn’t great, but I expect Lillard and the forwards to benefit more from this than Simons.
- Jerami Grant O20.5 points: A bad Nuggets defense should allow Grant to flourish even with Lillard in the lineup. This season with Lillard his average is a bit below the 20 ppg mark, but in the game on the 4th against the Pacers with Lillard, he had 28 and a green light as he put up 10 threes and 21 shots overall.
- Alperen Sengun O 14.5 Points: This is a total spot play. The Spurs are the very worst defense in the league this year and are super banged up. Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poetl are both out tonight, leaving (checks notes)…. Zach Collins to defend the talented young big man. The Rockets aren’t great either on the defensive side, so this should be a high-scoring affair.
- Raiders -6.5 (-125): I bought the .5 point here just to be safe, but the Rams are a disaster this season, and now they do not have a quarterback. Whether this is John Wolford, Sam Perkins or Baker Mayfield at the helm for the Rams, they will not have a competent offense and are missing Aaron Donald on defense, so I could see this game maybe even being a blowout in favor of the Raiders.
- Cam Akers U45.5 rush yards: Another bet against the Rams. They might not be able to throw the ball, but that does not mean they can run either. They are last in the league in rush yards per game, and Kyren Williams will also be stealing carries from Akers. The Raiders also have a top-10 defense against the rush against a bad Rams O-line, so this could go way under.
- Ivica Zubac O9.5 Points: My last play of the day is going to be on Zubac. Since his 31 and 29 game a few weeks back, Ty Lue has trusted him more on offense. Kawhi is resting tonight, so his shots will be dispersed. In his last ten games, Zubac is averaging 12.4 points.
11am Sports 