Tag: NFL

Categories
Football

The Eagles are Even Scarier Than We Think

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of, if not the best, teams in the NFL this season, but their future is even brighter than the present. They will have Jalen Hurts under his rookie contract next year, so this offseason they can go out and keep their free agents or sign others. 

The really exciting thing for Eagles fans is that they have two first-round picks in this upcoming draft, including a pick from the Saints, which is projected to be in the top ten. They can either pick a top prospect or trade back for more picks and fill out their depth chart with young and talented players. An ESPN mock draft has Philly taking Bijan Robinson from Texas with the 5th overall pick. This seems like a bit of a reach, even for a sensational talent like Robinson, since running backs early have not worked out super well as of late. 

I think that the play is to trade that pick and get a later first-round picks and a few day-two picks (second and third round) and get pass rushers and offensive lineman. Miles Sanders is a free agent and coming off of a good year, he is in line to get a bigger contract in the offseason. Sanders is good, but with the Eagle’s scheme and O-line, you can have running back by committee. 

The Birds have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl this year, but next year they will be a once-in-a-decade type of juggernaut. Last time the Eagles had the formula of a QB on a rookie contract and an ultra-talented team around him, we remember how that went, ending in a Lombardi Trophy in 2018. 

Late edit: I just watched a breakdown of Bijan Robinson’s tape at Texas and might be talking myself into the Eagles picking him early. A truly generational talent. They could trade back into the middle of the first round and still be able to land the Longhorn Product.

A guy this shifty should not be allowed to run this angrily. Who hurt this man?
Categories
Basketball Betting Football

$70 to $700: 12/12

If the object of this series was to go .500 every day, this would have been the best possible start. Sadly that is not the goal, and on Sunday I once again went .500, ending the day 2-2. Thanks in part to the + sign attached to the Mahomes prop, I ended up in the positive a few cents once again. I said that the Vikes Lions game had stink written all over it, and I of course took the bait. I also relied too heavily on a system where I said in my analysis “the Eagles might hit the over by themselves” and of course they did. I need to start trusting myself more, and that begins today.

Record: 10-10

Total: $70.95

  • Jimmy Butler O20.5 points: Since getting back from injury last week, Butler has been averaging 24.8 ppg, and he is coming off of a 30-point game against the Spurs. This is a favorable spot against a bad Pacers defense. I also think this might be one of the last times Butler’s line will be this low for quite some time.
  • Tyrese Haliburton O15.5 points + assists: Haliburton averages 11 assists per game, and this number is low because of some tough rebounding variance the past few games where he has just 5 rebounds in his past 3 games, I expect that to change tonight, he could also very easily rip off 16 assists as he is maybe the best passer in the league right now.
  • Rhomandre O77.5 Rush Yards: This is not as much of a bet on Rhomandre Stevenson as it is a bet against the Cardinals rush defense, which ranks dead last in the league in yards per game. It is a high total, but I think Belicheck tries to keep the ball on the ground and out of Mac Jones’s hands.
  • Mac Jones U32.5 pass attempts: I added this while writing the analysis on the Rhomandre bet. I’m not going to Eagles myself again.
Categories
Betting Football

$70 To $700: 12/11

I took yesterday off as the board was weird with load management so it was tough to find a lean. I’m back and better than ever today after (accidentally) staying above water on Friday. I accidentally bet Gobert over PRA instead of the under. The over hit easily which was a nice surprise, and then the night ended with a hot tip from my overtime hockey guy that gave me Vegas live ML. I ended up + a few cents after what I thought was a disaster of a night. 

I have a few plays in the NFL today based on some foolproof systems from the past decade or so, as well as a fun prop on a great QB.

Record: 8-8

Current Total: $70.65

  • Vikings +2: This line has stink written all over it, but I cannot pass up the opportunity to bet on a team that is 10-2 against the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell is a good motivator, but might not be the best in-game coach. I love getting 2 points here as this could easily be a game the Lions win by one on a last-second FG.
  • U46 Browns @Bengals: In the last 15 years, divisional games have gone under 61% after week 11. I love this under because Watson did not look sharp last week, and I doubt he lights it up this week against a solid Bengals defense in a big spot for the Browns.
  • U44.5 Eagles @ Giants: Another divisional under here. The Giants luck has been running out as of late, mostly due to their plethora of injuries. The Eagles held the Titans to 10 points last week after Treylon Burks was injured. The Giants starting receivers seem like they have made up names, so the Eagles secondary should have no problems keeping them in check. My only worry here is that the Eagles score 45 on their own.
  • Patrick Mahomes O24.5 completions: The Chiefs are taking on the Broncos, and should have no problem handling this game. They are not a ground-and-pound team, so I think the way they control this game is with short passes. At plus money, this bet is too good to ignore. 
Categories
Basketball Betting

$70 To $700: 12/8

I’m just spitballing and trying something new here. I have always loved sports betting but never have been careful about tracking my bets, and always end up doing something dumb. This $70 to $700 series is to hold myself accountable so I stop wasting all of my accounts on “fuck it” bets where I end up draining my account. I will do research on these picks before games start that way I’m not just looking at the board five minutes before a game starts and just betting on a number that I think I like. These will be heavily props mostly with a few sides and game totals sprinkled in periodically. Props just seem to be a bit more transparent and less variable. These are not advice and betting is not guaranteed money, so either tail or fade my dumbass, but do so responsibly.

It’s a small NBA board tonight with yet another stinky Thursday night NFL game. However, I think there is value on the board tonight, with these six picks.

Start of the Day Total: $71.77

  • Anfernee Simons U22.5 Points: 5 to win 9.65: Simons has been great this year, but Lillard is back from injury, so Simons won’t have the ball in his hands as much tonight. In games with Lillard, he is averaging 21.1 points, as opposed to 29 in games without Lillard. The Nuggets defense isn’t great, but I expect Lillard and the forwards to benefit more from this than Simons.
  • Jerami Grant O20.5 points: A bad Nuggets defense should allow Grant to flourish even with Lillard in the lineup. This season with Lillard his average is a bit below the 20 ppg mark, but in the game on the 4th against the Pacers with Lillard, he had 28 and a green light as he put up 10 threes and 21 shots overall.
  • Alperen Sengun O 14.5 Points: This is a total spot play. The Spurs are the very worst defense in the league this year and are super banged up. Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poetl are both out tonight, leaving (checks notes)…. Zach Collins to defend the talented young big man. The Rockets aren’t great either on the defensive side, so this should be a high-scoring affair.
  • Raiders -6.5 (-125): I bought the .5 point here just to be safe, but the Rams are a disaster this season, and now they do not have a quarterback. Whether this is John Wolford, Sam Perkins or Baker Mayfield at the helm for the Rams, they will not have a competent offense and are missing Aaron Donald on defense, so I could see this game maybe even being a blowout in favor of the Raiders.
  • Cam Akers U45.5 rush yards: Another bet against the Rams. They might not be able to throw the ball, but that does not mean they can run either. They are last in the league in rush yards per game, and Kyren Williams will also be stealing carries from Akers. The Raiders also have a top-10 defense against the rush against a bad Rams O-line, so this could go way under.
  • Ivica Zubac O9.5 Points: My last play of the day is going to be on Zubac. Since his 31 and 29 game a few weeks back, Ty Lue has trusted him more on offense. Kawhi is resting tonight, so his shots will be dispersed. In his last ten games, Zubac is averaging 12.4 points.
Categories
Football

The Packers Are Confusing

When Brian Gutekunst and the front office drafted Jordan Love to be the heir to Aaron Rodgers, what is happening this season HAD to have been one of the possibilities that crossed their minds. Yet they seem like they have no idea how to handle the current situation.

Green Bay is content for the time being after beating the Bears in Chicago, and Rodgers showing that he still owns the greater Chicago area. But we still have a dilemma. A-Rodg has not looked like an MVP this season. Whether it is regression, losing Davantae, losing his QB coach and OC, being injured almost the entire year, or a combination of all of that, Rodgers and the Pack are experiencing a rare losing season. We got to see a bit of what Jordan Love can do against the Eagles last week, and he looked awesome. He has learned from Rodgers and you can see that in his laser quick release that is reminiscent of his elder teammate.

Those passes against the Eagles would have been all we needed to see to shut down an injured Rodgers for the season. What point is there in throwing an injured quarterback out and risking further injury? And we’d get to see what we have in Jordan Love and up his trade value or be comfortable trading away Rodgers. Instead, we’re rolling out an injured 39-year-old QB in a nearly meaningless last few games of the season.

Let’s see what we have in the Christian Watson and Jordan Love duo and get fans excited again. An offseason quarterback controversy is an easy way to make a football-less few months of summer go by a bit quicker. Make it happen Gute and LaFleur!

Categories
Football

Graham Mertz Deserves Better

Playing quarterback for the Wisconsin Badgers has to be one of the most stressful jobs in the world. Everyone knows Wisconsin loves to run the football, but we don’t fully commit to the run like the military academies do, so we ask our quarterbacks to throw the ball 15-20 times a game. In theory that seems like it should be an easy job, just fake a few handoffs and throw it to a tight end a few times a game. Wrong. There is so much more pressure on every pass, and that can’t be easy for a 19-23-year-old kid to have their every move on and off the field scrutinized.

In the modern era of Badger football, we have had a plethora of average quarterbacks, with a singular outstanding season from Russell Wilson thrown in the mix. So when fans heard that Graham Mertz, a 4-5 star recruit from Kansas, was coming to Madison, they immediately touted him as the savior. And it started out as good as anyone could have drawn up. Coming out and torching Illinois in his first start as a redshirt freshman gave Wisconsin so much hope. But then Covid decimated that season and we never saw Mertz get into a proper rhythm. Then the next two years he was not asked to do much and would struggle when he was asked to throw. A lot of that is playcalling and the situations the coaching staff put him in.

Throughout it all, the media was not kind to Mertz, but he would go up to the podium and say the right things with his head held high, but was still hated. I think Mertz is still talented, but Wisconsin was not the place for him. I am happy that he entered the transfer portal after the coaching change, and I hope we see him go to a smaller school, preferably in a small conference like the MAC. Michigan State legend Rocky Lombardi followed this blueprint after three meh seasons at MSU, and Mertz should do the same. Getting to go and sling the rock at a small school and show off his arm in case he still wants to play at the next level is the best thing for him. He deserves to fly under the radar in his last two years of eligibility and I hope nothing but the best for a fellow Badger.

Categories
Football

What Should Jordan Love do Next?

It doesn’t take a football genius to figure out what the Packers were thinking when they drafted Jordan Love. In 2005 they drafted Aaron Rodgers to be the heir to the reverse Robinhood, Brett Favre, and that worked out brilliantly, to say the least. Rodgers sat behind Favre for three years and took over the starting role at the beginning of his fourth. If the front office planned on following that plan, Love should be starting next year.

That obviously isn’t what looks like is going to happen, as Arod is coming off of back-to-back MVPs and signed a three-year extension that does not even begin until the 2024 season.

So that leads us to the question what are the Packers going to do with Jordan Love? Here are a few serious options.

  1. Move to defense and play defensive tackle
    • It might be too early to tell, but it certainly looks as if the Packers whiffed on DT Devonte Wyatt with the 28th overall pick. He has been too shitty at practice to even put on the field, so we might as well have one 1st round pick playing DT. Just lean into the Wisconsin lifestyle and go comatose on some fried cheese curds and Miller Genuine Drafts.
  2. Sign an extension to be a career backup to Rodgers
    • I always jokingly said that being a backup QB who has no chance of actually playing meaningful snaps is maybe the best gig in all of sports. I assume Jordan Love wants to start at some point, but no one would blame him if he wanted to wear a visor, and headset, and hold a clipboard for the rest of his career. A lot safer than getting drilled by the freaks that play defense nowadays.
  3. Go play backup point guard for the Bucks
    • George Hill was a liability for the Bucks in the playoffs last year, and Jordan Love tested phenomenally at the combine, and I assume he played at least some basketball in high school and dominated a few pickup games at Utah State. Put him out there for 15 minutes a night, what’s the worst that can happen?
  4. Retire
    • No one would blame Love if he decided to hang it up to avoid more Packers QB drama and the uncertainty of playing on a prove-it deal somewhere else where the microscope would be on him on every snap. He could call it quits and be an analyst for NFL, or a great motivational speaker where he gives the same “How to get paid for doing nothing” presentation at convention centers all over the country. Lord knows I would attend and listen to his advice.
Categories
Betting Football

This Fantasy Football Season in Wedding Crasher Quotes

  • “You shut your mouth when you’re talking to me!”
    • This is what Allen Robinson owners are saying to the so-called experts who told them to draft A-Rob over Amon-Ra.
  • “I know it doesn’t feel like it but we’re making progress.”
    • Dereck Henry hasn’t had a trademark Dereck Henry game yet, but he has been much better the past two weeks and is starting to look faster and the Titans have another game this week against a bad Commanders Defense.
  • “Sandbagging son of a bitch!”
    • Mike Tomlin was holding George Pickens hostage under the QB play of Mitch Trubisky for the first three weeks. When Kenny Pickett got put in the game we saw what everyone saw from Pickens in camp and preseason. Head coaches love nothing more than sandbagging when it comes to talented rookie QB’s that could be franchise guys. Look at Justin Herbert, Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and even Baker Mayfield. All of them were forced to sit out seasons, or part of seasons when they gave their teams a better chance of winning.
  • “Tatoo on the lower back? Might as well be a bullseye.”
    • “Established starting QB with proven rushing upside in the 6th round? Might as well be a bullseye.” Guys who took Jalen Hurts in one QB leagues after the first wave of QBs are feeling like real geniuses right now after his first four weeks that have him as QB3.
  • “Erroneous! Erroneous on both counts!”
    • People ignoring the warning signs of drafting Zeke. Backup who is clearly better? Clearly doesn’t have the same burst. Erroneous on both counts.
  • “I happen to know everything there is to know about maple syrup.”
    • I happen to know everything there is to know about drafting receivers first. Number one target in elite offenses, less risk of injury, safer picks. If only Jonathon Taylor wasn’t so damn good people would have universally taken Justin Jefferson 1st.
  • “Grow up Peter Pan. Count Chocula.”
    • This isn’t 2007. You can survive on elite receiver play and have only one reliable running back. Injuries exist and waivers and trades are your best friend. Grow up and move on from LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2003 season.
  • “Rule 76 no excuses play like a champion.”
    • Even if you drafted Kyle Pitts in the 3rd round, or have dealt with injuries. Hunt the waivers and trade market and find the next Jeff Wilson or Romeo Doubbs. Or blackmail the idiot in your league and get their WR1 for two borderline flexes!
  • “Hello, Red.”
    • Hello Andy Dalton and thank you for being better than Jameis and allowing the Saint’s skill positions to produce.
  • “Make me a bicycle clown!”
    • Give Kyle Pitts a red zone target Arthur Smith you clown.
  • “We gotta get outta here, we got a stage five clinger.”
    • Anyone who picked Clyde Edwards Helaire has to trade him while they still can. He is not even the lead running back on the Chiefs. He has only had 50% or more of the snap share once this season and relying on a short running back to continue to get goal line receiving touchdowns is very risky. Get out while his value is high.
  • “Crabcakes and football! That’s what Maryland does!”
    • Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford connecting for 10 completions for 100 yards. That’s what the Rams do and we were crazy for thinking their success last year wouldn’t be repeated.
  • “It wouldn’t kill you to play some competitive sports, Todd.”
    • This is surely what Tom Brady is saying to his receivers who refuse to all be healthy at the same time and allow Brady to look like the Brady of years past.
  • “Nature Vs. nurture. And nature always wins.”
    • Mid to late-round rookie WRs vs veterans who might give you eight points on a bye week. The rookies always win. Thank you Chris Olave, Drake London, and hopefully now George Pickens. Jalen Tolbert, I hate your guts.
  • “Why don’t you try getting jacked off under the table in front of the whole damn family. Have some real problems, jackass.”
    • Try being the guy who has to decide which TE to stream everyweek, and have some real problems, jackass.
  • “I hope you flip your bike over and knock out your two front teeth out, you selfish son of a bitch.”
    • Every league seems to have the guy that hit the running back lottery, and now has Jamaal Williams and Jeff Wilson sitting on their bench. To you my friend, I hope to see you in the dentist office sooner than later.
  • “The painting was a gift Todd, I’m taking it with me.”
    • To the guy who threw Chris Olave into a trade as a filler after week one, no you cannot have him back now that the red rifle is leading the Saints to the promise land.
  • “I’m reading don’t kill myself books.”
    • Anyone who gambled on the unknown that was Trey Lance almost immediately regretted it after a tough performance in a monsoon against the Bears, then a season-ending injury the next week. They likely have one of these books in their amazon cart.
  • “What an idiot! OHHH what a loser!!”
    • Can’t have a crasher’s article without the iconic Chaz Reinhold making an appearance on the list. This is anyone who drafted Amon-Ra referring to anyone who drafted Diontae Johnson ahead of the star in Detroit. All the signs were there last year. How could we all be such idiots and losers?