As usual, in an offseason filled with huge signings, the Brewers are staying quiet in terms of signing marquee free agents, but are instead flying under the radar and making trades that are saving money and improving the team.
The first big move they did was trading Hunter Renfroe to the Angels in exchange for 3 pitching prospects. At first, I questioned this move, as Renfroe was our best hitter by the end of the year in a lineup that lacked firepower. But the next moves that we made were pretty smart and I think made up for it.
I’m going to nerd out a bit here and throw out some of the advanced analytics I’ve learned after a year as a baseball scout whose company does defensive metrics.
Since we are the Brewers, what we do is develop pitchers. So I predict that one of the three we got from the Angels will pan out and be good for us. My guess would be Elvis Peguero. the 25-year-old reliever has made some serious strides in the past two years. From 2016-19, he was stuck in rookie ball, but since 2021, he has worked his way up the ranks quite quickly and found himself pitching a few games in the majors last year. He was underwhelming last year, but that was because he simply was not ready and was forced into that position by the struggling Angels who were just looking to get innings from anywhere they could and get out of the season. What excites me is his sinker, which averaged 96.5 MPH was also in the 93rd percentile of spin rate. He also saw his slider increase by two mph from 2021-2022, so he is only getting better. Relievers only need two pitches to dominate, so if we can get him to eat up the 7th or 8th inning consistently to set up Devin Williams, he can be a huge asset to the team.
The next trade that we did was offloading Kolten Wong to the Mariners and getting Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker in return. Both had down years last year, but we saw what Winker could do in the NL Central while he was with the Reds. In 2017-2021 with the team, he had a .888 OPS with a 129 OPS+ (29% better than the league average) primarily against right-handed pitching, which in the MLB is a majority of the pitchers you will be facing. Even in his down-season last year, he still had a 103 OPS+, which is still better than the league average. I’m not big on Toro, but he is another piece to be able to throw in the lineup. Wong was a big name for the Brewers to sign, but he has not been great for the Brewers since he signed.
One of the biggest reasons I love the Brewers’ outlook for next season is not because of a player that we signed, but because of a rule change. The shift is being banned, so now two infielders must be on each side of the infield. The Brewers had two players in the top 18 of players who had the most hits taken away by the shift. Tyrone Taylor had nine hits taken away, while Rowdy Tellez was second in the league with 15 hits taken away by the shift. Winker is also a player who was heavily shifted against, so this rule change should provide a little spark to the offense. Shoutout my company, Sports Info Solutions, for that data. I helped collect those numbers so also shoutout me (and whoever audited my games and fixed my mistakes after the first few games I did).
Another reason why I was not super beat up about losing Wong is that we were able to replace him at second base with Toro, and Owen Miller from the Guardians, who can also play 1st and 3rd at an above-average clip. Miller has shown flashes on offense, but will mostly be in the lineup for his 90th-percentile sprint speed and 91st-percentile OAA (outs above average). Miller provides great flexibility in the lineup as a right-handed bat that can play first base and give Rowdy some time off when we face tough lefties.
Of course, we sill have to lean on our pitching and hope that we can stay healthy this season and that Aaron Ashby shows out after we locked him up on a team-friendly deal. Once again, if Yelich returns to MVP form, we will be immediate title contenders but based on recent history that most likely won’t happen. He is still a decent bat in the lineup, but let’s hope he can start to look like his 2018-2019 self.
11am Sports 