Category: Betting

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Basketball Betting

Let’s Pump the Brakes on Wembanyama

Dusting off the old typewriter to get some stuff off my chest about the upcoming NBA draft and the narratives that are being spread about the top prospect, Victor Wembanyama. Is this what 23 is? Getting so worked up on a Friday night about an 19-year old that you put all other plans aside to rant on your blog that no one reads. It’s kinda great.

Earlier this week Adrian Wojnarowski went on ESPN to spout an outrageous and unfair quote, “This is the most highly-anticipated player to ever enter the NBA,” Wojnarowski said. “This is maybe not only the greatest prospect in the NBA’s history, (he’s) maybe the greatest prospect in the history of team sports.” This just got me so fucking angry. Woj is 54 years old, which means he was of functioning age for when LeBron was coming up through the ranks in the early 2000’s. Before the internet was what it is now, LeBron had his games televised on ESPN and commentated by some of their best comentary teams. The way LeBron saw the court at that young of an age is something we had never seen and haven’t seen since. Wemby is 7’5 and his potential is limitless, but he doesn’t facilitate like LBJ. LeBron just broke the all-time scoring record and he’s a better passer than scorer. I would say Wemby is more interesting than LeBron, but not a better prospect.

Now to the other things that angered me about this…. ALL of team sports?? Woj cmon now. First off, coming out of high school, Kareem had won all of the NYC high school titles, and then went into college and won all of the NCAA titles in his three years on varsity at UCLA. Coming into the NBA Kareem was just as hyped as Wemby, it was just a different time so it wasn’t covered like it is now.

BUT the most egregious part of all of this is the blinders that Woj has on for basketball. Let me remind you of a young man named Tiger who can hit the shit out of a golf ball. Tiger Woods was 4 years old and going on TV shows and showing off his putting and chipping skills and his dad labeled him as the next big thing. He arrived on the tour and then went and ripped off one of the most dominant stretches in all of sports history. From 1997-2013 Tiger was 126 under par in Majors… Second place was 125 OVER par. Tiger was in the spotlight for every conscious moment of his life and was expected to be the best ever as a CHILD. Wembanyama couldn’t dribble until he was ten.

Now this might come off as Wembanyama hate and it’s not that. He’s great and I think he’ll change the Spurs. He does things on the court that have never been done before but this comes at a risk. Guys his size are much more injury prone and we just saw it with Chet Holmgren missing his whole rookie year with a foot injury. Seven-footers have a terrible history of foot injuries, and Woj saying things like this about a guy with such a risk of injury is just setting him up for failure. We’ve seen top prospects like Greg Oden (taken before KD) Sam Bowie (taken before MJ) get injured before they ever get a chance in the league. Then guys like Bill Walton and Yao Ming shined bright but eventually flamed out due to foot injuries. Putting expectations on this young man is dangerous and Woj being one of the most prominent figures in the NBA being the one who said it is stupid and he should know better. Also.. Scoot Henderson may just end up having a better career, not because of talent or potential, but because of his build and likelihood that he will hold up over time. I mean look at this motherfucker. That’s a dawg. Could this be an MJ/Bowie situation? I hope not. But this shouldn’t be a LeBron vs the field situation either.

Categories
Basketball Betting Football

$70 to $700: 12/12

If the object of this series was to go .500 every day, this would have been the best possible start. Sadly that is not the goal, and on Sunday I once again went .500, ending the day 2-2. Thanks in part to the + sign attached to the Mahomes prop, I ended up in the positive a few cents once again. I said that the Vikes Lions game had stink written all over it, and I of course took the bait. I also relied too heavily on a system where I said in my analysis “the Eagles might hit the over by themselves” and of course they did. I need to start trusting myself more, and that begins today.

Record: 10-10

Total: $70.95

  • Jimmy Butler O20.5 points: Since getting back from injury last week, Butler has been averaging 24.8 ppg, and he is coming off of a 30-point game against the Spurs. This is a favorable spot against a bad Pacers defense. I also think this might be one of the last times Butler’s line will be this low for quite some time.
  • Tyrese Haliburton O15.5 points + assists: Haliburton averages 11 assists per game, and this number is low because of some tough rebounding variance the past few games where he has just 5 rebounds in his past 3 games, I expect that to change tonight, he could also very easily rip off 16 assists as he is maybe the best passer in the league right now.
  • Rhomandre O77.5 Rush Yards: This is not as much of a bet on Rhomandre Stevenson as it is a bet against the Cardinals rush defense, which ranks dead last in the league in yards per game. It is a high total, but I think Belicheck tries to keep the ball on the ground and out of Mac Jones’s hands.
  • Mac Jones U32.5 pass attempts: I added this while writing the analysis on the Rhomandre bet. I’m not going to Eagles myself again.
Categories
Betting Football

$70 To $700: 12/11

I took yesterday off as the board was weird with load management so it was tough to find a lean. I’m back and better than ever today after (accidentally) staying above water on Friday. I accidentally bet Gobert over PRA instead of the under. The over hit easily which was a nice surprise, and then the night ended with a hot tip from my overtime hockey guy that gave me Vegas live ML. I ended up + a few cents after what I thought was a disaster of a night. 

I have a few plays in the NFL today based on some foolproof systems from the past decade or so, as well as a fun prop on a great QB.

Record: 8-8

Current Total: $70.65

  • Vikings +2: This line has stink written all over it, but I cannot pass up the opportunity to bet on a team that is 10-2 against the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell is a good motivator, but might not be the best in-game coach. I love getting 2 points here as this could easily be a game the Lions win by one on a last-second FG.
  • U46 Browns @Bengals: In the last 15 years, divisional games have gone under 61% after week 11. I love this under because Watson did not look sharp last week, and I doubt he lights it up this week against a solid Bengals defense in a big spot for the Browns.
  • U44.5 Eagles @ Giants: Another divisional under here. The Giants luck has been running out as of late, mostly due to their plethora of injuries. The Eagles held the Titans to 10 points last week after Treylon Burks was injured. The Giants starting receivers seem like they have made up names, so the Eagles secondary should have no problems keeping them in check. My only worry here is that the Eagles score 45 on their own.
  • Patrick Mahomes O24.5 completions: The Chiefs are taking on the Broncos, and should have no problem handling this game. They are not a ground-and-pound team, so I think the way they control this game is with short passes. At plus money, this bet is too good to ignore. 
Categories
Basketball Betting

$70 To $700: 12/9

A couple of bad beats last night. Zubac with 9 first-half points couldn’t buy a pass from his selfish-ass teammates in the second half to get the 10 he needed. On the wrong side of the Baker Mayfield miracle game. The Raiders had so many different ways they could have put that game away. Sengun over points was almost a loser as well. He had 14, had one of the most unbelievable poster dunks I have ever seen but it was terribly called an offensive foul. Next possession he gets called for a travel when he did not even have control of the ball and gets so frustrated he gets taken out of the game in the middle of the third quarter and didn’t even get back in until garbage time where he barely squeaked a layup in to salvage tonight. S/O Cam Akers for fumbling or else he would have easily gone over. Kyren Williams got a lot of the second-half work because of the fumble which saved my ass. Dame took over in that game which was a great omen for Simons under points, which hit easily, but after 12 first quarter points, Jerami Grant ended up with 18 which had us end up 3-3 on the night. Staying above water night one, and a few bad beats. I’m fired up for the slate tonight. Gonna stick to just one play for each team at max from now on. 

Starting Balance: $70.07

Record:3-3

Tonights Plays:

  • Giannis O30.5 points: 8 straight games with 30+ points for Giannis, and I do not expect it to stop against the Mavericks tonight. Last time they played Giannis still had 30 even in just 27 minutes. This game should be closer (unless Grayson Allen hits 7 threes again) which should allow more opportunities for Giannis.
  • Scottie Barnes O28.5 points, rebounds, assists: Barnes is playing a lot better as of late, and this number has hit four of his last five. The Magic are still banged up and Barnes should be a beneficiary of this.
  • Mason Plumlee U23.5 PRA: The Knicks and Mitch Robinson have always kept Plumlee in check, as this number is 7-1 in Plumlee’s last 8 against the Knicks.
  • Zion O7.5 rebounds: As of late, Zion is looking much healthier, and this is 4-1 in his last 5 games. Ayton will most likely be guarding Valančiūnas, leaving a smaller matchup for Zion, where he should be a monster on the boards.
  • Anthony Davis U39.5 PRA: Davis was playing like an MVP before he exited his last game with flu like symptoms. Who knows how healthy AD is, and Embiid has kept AD in check, holding him to 23, 12 and 2. This number may not seem high, but could still hit with AD Having 25, 10 and 4, so I like this spot.
  • Kyrie Irving O23.5 points: This is a total spot play against the Hawks. Dejounte Murray is out for a few weeks, and he would normally be tasked with Kyrie, so the controversial guard should be able to feast on a depleted backcourt. Recently, Kyrie has been getting a ton of 4th quarter points, so maybe monitor this one around halftime and find some value and take his second-half points over if he was off to a cold start in the first.
  • Rudy Gobert U30.5 PRA: Gobert has really struggled this year, and even without KAT in the lineup, his numbers have not been great, averaging just 10 and 9.
  • Jaden Ivy U14.5 points: Ivey has seen a decrease in minutes since Bojan Bogdanovic returned a week or so ago, and Ivey will have a tough matchup against the Grizzlies. In his last 6 he is averaging just 12 points, which includes a 10-point output against the Grizzlies just 5 days ago.
  • Grambling @Vandy U138: My first college basketball play thanks to my good friend Chris. He is great at finding value in games like this. In Chris’s words “Grambling’s offense stinks (333 in efficiency) and Vandy shuts down low majors. Vandy’s offense is also inconsistent. Vandy has only given up 3 times, and all of those were to teams that were better than themselves.”
Categories
Basketball Betting

$70 To $700: 12/8

I’m just spitballing and trying something new here. I have always loved sports betting but never have been careful about tracking my bets, and always end up doing something dumb. This $70 to $700 series is to hold myself accountable so I stop wasting all of my accounts on “fuck it” bets where I end up draining my account. I will do research on these picks before games start that way I’m not just looking at the board five minutes before a game starts and just betting on a number that I think I like. These will be heavily props mostly with a few sides and game totals sprinkled in periodically. Props just seem to be a bit more transparent and less variable. These are not advice and betting is not guaranteed money, so either tail or fade my dumbass, but do so responsibly.

It’s a small NBA board tonight with yet another stinky Thursday night NFL game. However, I think there is value on the board tonight, with these six picks.

Start of the Day Total: $71.77

  • Anfernee Simons U22.5 Points: 5 to win 9.65: Simons has been great this year, but Lillard is back from injury, so Simons won’t have the ball in his hands as much tonight. In games with Lillard, he is averaging 21.1 points, as opposed to 29 in games without Lillard. The Nuggets defense isn’t great, but I expect Lillard and the forwards to benefit more from this than Simons.
  • Jerami Grant O20.5 points: A bad Nuggets defense should allow Grant to flourish even with Lillard in the lineup. This season with Lillard his average is a bit below the 20 ppg mark, but in the game on the 4th against the Pacers with Lillard, he had 28 and a green light as he put up 10 threes and 21 shots overall.
  • Alperen Sengun O 14.5 Points: This is a total spot play. The Spurs are the very worst defense in the league this year and are super banged up. Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poetl are both out tonight, leaving (checks notes)…. Zach Collins to defend the talented young big man. The Rockets aren’t great either on the defensive side, so this should be a high-scoring affair.
  • Raiders -6.5 (-125): I bought the .5 point here just to be safe, but the Rams are a disaster this season, and now they do not have a quarterback. Whether this is John Wolford, Sam Perkins or Baker Mayfield at the helm for the Rams, they will not have a competent offense and are missing Aaron Donald on defense, so I could see this game maybe even being a blowout in favor of the Raiders.
  • Cam Akers U45.5 rush yards: Another bet against the Rams. They might not be able to throw the ball, but that does not mean they can run either. They are last in the league in rush yards per game, and Kyren Williams will also be stealing carries from Akers. The Raiders also have a top-10 defense against the rush against a bad Rams O-line, so this could go way under.
  • Ivica Zubac O9.5 Points: My last play of the day is going to be on Zubac. Since his 31 and 29 game a few weeks back, Ty Lue has trusted him more on offense. Kawhi is resting tonight, so his shots will be dispersed. In his last ten games, Zubac is averaging 12.4 points.
Categories
Betting Football

This Fantasy Football Season in Wedding Crasher Quotes

  • “You shut your mouth when you’re talking to me!”
    • This is what Allen Robinson owners are saying to the so-called experts who told them to draft A-Rob over Amon-Ra.
  • “I know it doesn’t feel like it but we’re making progress.”
    • Dereck Henry hasn’t had a trademark Dereck Henry game yet, but he has been much better the past two weeks and is starting to look faster and the Titans have another game this week against a bad Commanders Defense.
  • “Sandbagging son of a bitch!”
    • Mike Tomlin was holding George Pickens hostage under the QB play of Mitch Trubisky for the first three weeks. When Kenny Pickett got put in the game we saw what everyone saw from Pickens in camp and preseason. Head coaches love nothing more than sandbagging when it comes to talented rookie QB’s that could be franchise guys. Look at Justin Herbert, Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and even Baker Mayfield. All of them were forced to sit out seasons, or part of seasons when they gave their teams a better chance of winning.
  • “Tatoo on the lower back? Might as well be a bullseye.”
    • “Established starting QB with proven rushing upside in the 6th round? Might as well be a bullseye.” Guys who took Jalen Hurts in one QB leagues after the first wave of QBs are feeling like real geniuses right now after his first four weeks that have him as QB3.
  • “Erroneous! Erroneous on both counts!”
    • People ignoring the warning signs of drafting Zeke. Backup who is clearly better? Clearly doesn’t have the same burst. Erroneous on both counts.
  • “I happen to know everything there is to know about maple syrup.”
    • I happen to know everything there is to know about drafting receivers first. Number one target in elite offenses, less risk of injury, safer picks. If only Jonathon Taylor wasn’t so damn good people would have universally taken Justin Jefferson 1st.
  • “Grow up Peter Pan. Count Chocula.”
    • This isn’t 2007. You can survive on elite receiver play and have only one reliable running back. Injuries exist and waivers and trades are your best friend. Grow up and move on from LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2003 season.
  • “Rule 76 no excuses play like a champion.”
    • Even if you drafted Kyle Pitts in the 3rd round, or have dealt with injuries. Hunt the waivers and trade market and find the next Jeff Wilson or Romeo Doubbs. Or blackmail the idiot in your league and get their WR1 for two borderline flexes!
  • “Hello, Red.”
    • Hello Andy Dalton and thank you for being better than Jameis and allowing the Saint’s skill positions to produce.
  • “Make me a bicycle clown!”
    • Give Kyle Pitts a red zone target Arthur Smith you clown.
  • “We gotta get outta here, we got a stage five clinger.”
    • Anyone who picked Clyde Edwards Helaire has to trade him while they still can. He is not even the lead running back on the Chiefs. He has only had 50% or more of the snap share once this season and relying on a short running back to continue to get goal line receiving touchdowns is very risky. Get out while his value is high.
  • “Crabcakes and football! That’s what Maryland does!”
    • Cooper Kupp and Matt Stafford connecting for 10 completions for 100 yards. That’s what the Rams do and we were crazy for thinking their success last year wouldn’t be repeated.
  • “It wouldn’t kill you to play some competitive sports, Todd.”
    • This is surely what Tom Brady is saying to his receivers who refuse to all be healthy at the same time and allow Brady to look like the Brady of years past.
  • “Nature Vs. nurture. And nature always wins.”
    • Mid to late-round rookie WRs vs veterans who might give you eight points on a bye week. The rookies always win. Thank you Chris Olave, Drake London, and hopefully now George Pickens. Jalen Tolbert, I hate your guts.
  • “Why don’t you try getting jacked off under the table in front of the whole damn family. Have some real problems, jackass.”
    • Try being the guy who has to decide which TE to stream everyweek, and have some real problems, jackass.
  • “I hope you flip your bike over and knock out your two front teeth out, you selfish son of a bitch.”
    • Every league seems to have the guy that hit the running back lottery, and now has Jamaal Williams and Jeff Wilson sitting on their bench. To you my friend, I hope to see you in the dentist office sooner than later.
  • “The painting was a gift Todd, I’m taking it with me.”
    • To the guy who threw Chris Olave into a trade as a filler after week one, no you cannot have him back now that the red rifle is leading the Saints to the promise land.
  • “I’m reading don’t kill myself books.”
    • Anyone who gambled on the unknown that was Trey Lance almost immediately regretted it after a tough performance in a monsoon against the Bears, then a season-ending injury the next week. They likely have one of these books in their amazon cart.
  • “What an idiot! OHHH what a loser!!”
    • Can’t have a crasher’s article without the iconic Chaz Reinhold making an appearance on the list. This is anyone who drafted Amon-Ra referring to anyone who drafted Diontae Johnson ahead of the star in Detroit. All the signs were there last year. How could we all be such idiots and losers?
Categories
Baseball Betting

10/7 MLB Wild Card Early Plays

Oct 5, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Shane McClanahan (62) prepares to pitch against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning in game one of the 2020 ALDS at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

That time of the year is finally here… Playoff baseball. The second half of the season really drags along but it all becomes worth it in October. With the new wild card format, there is plenty of action today.

First two games PrizePicks play

  • Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Ks. + Tommy Edman Over 0.5 total bases from hits
    • The Rays like to lean on their pen… Unless McClanahan is on the mound. He has struggled over the past month or so, but the Rays pitching always shows up in the playoffs, so I expect to see a strong outing from McClanahan. Edman has been a staple in the Cards lineup all year and hits well against both sides as a switch hitter. He plays all over the infield so I do not expect to see him get subbed out, so with four or five at-bats, Edman should poke one into the outfield

Rays @ Guardians play

  • Runs in the first inning +150
    • NRFI’s (no runs first inning) have been the hot bet this year, which is exactly why I like fading it here. Everyone loves a plus sign when they bet, plus the Guardians are the youngest team not just in the playoffs, but the entire league. They have nothing to lose so I expect them to come out swinging early.

Phillies @ Cardinals play

  • Cardinals ML -110
    • This Cardinals team is built for an October run with a core of seasoned veterans and young guys who are hungry to make an impact. The Phillies had a good season, but their wild card birth wasn’t as much won as it was lost by the putrid Brewers who had every opportunity this season to distance themselves both in the Central and the Wild Card race.