Author: bobbyhink15

Categories
Basketball Betting

Let’s Pump the Brakes on Wembanyama

Dusting off the old typewriter to get some stuff off my chest about the upcoming NBA draft and the narratives that are being spread about the top prospect, Victor Wembanyama. Is this what 23 is? Getting so worked up on a Friday night about an 19-year old that you put all other plans aside to rant on your blog that no one reads. It’s kinda great.

Earlier this week Adrian Wojnarowski went on ESPN to spout an outrageous and unfair quote, “This is the most highly-anticipated player to ever enter the NBA,” Wojnarowski said. “This is maybe not only the greatest prospect in the NBA’s history, (he’s) maybe the greatest prospect in the history of team sports.” This just got me so fucking angry. Woj is 54 years old, which means he was of functioning age for when LeBron was coming up through the ranks in the early 2000’s. Before the internet was what it is now, LeBron had his games televised on ESPN and commentated by some of their best comentary teams. The way LeBron saw the court at that young of an age is something we had never seen and haven’t seen since. Wemby is 7’5 and his potential is limitless, but he doesn’t facilitate like LBJ. LeBron just broke the all-time scoring record and he’s a better passer than scorer. I would say Wemby is more interesting than LeBron, but not a better prospect.

Now to the other things that angered me about this…. ALL of team sports?? Woj cmon now. First off, coming out of high school, Kareem had won all of the NYC high school titles, and then went into college and won all of the NCAA titles in his three years on varsity at UCLA. Coming into the NBA Kareem was just as hyped as Wemby, it was just a different time so it wasn’t covered like it is now.

BUT the most egregious part of all of this is the blinders that Woj has on for basketball. Let me remind you of a young man named Tiger who can hit the shit out of a golf ball. Tiger Woods was 4 years old and going on TV shows and showing off his putting and chipping skills and his dad labeled him as the next big thing. He arrived on the tour and then went and ripped off one of the most dominant stretches in all of sports history. From 1997-2013 Tiger was 126 under par in Majors… Second place was 125 OVER par. Tiger was in the spotlight for every conscious moment of his life and was expected to be the best ever as a CHILD. Wembanyama couldn’t dribble until he was ten.

Now this might come off as Wembanyama hate and it’s not that. He’s great and I think he’ll change the Spurs. He does things on the court that have never been done before but this comes at a risk. Guys his size are much more injury prone and we just saw it with Chet Holmgren missing his whole rookie year with a foot injury. Seven-footers have a terrible history of foot injuries, and Woj saying things like this about a guy with such a risk of injury is just setting him up for failure. We’ve seen top prospects like Greg Oden (taken before KD) Sam Bowie (taken before MJ) get injured before they ever get a chance in the league. Then guys like Bill Walton and Yao Ming shined bright but eventually flamed out due to foot injuries. Putting expectations on this young man is dangerous and Woj being one of the most prominent figures in the NBA being the one who said it is stupid and he should know better. Also.. Scoot Henderson may just end up having a better career, not because of talent or potential, but because of his build and likelihood that he will hold up over time. I mean look at this motherfucker. That’s a dawg. Could this be an MJ/Bowie situation? I hope not. But this shouldn’t be a LeBron vs the field situation either.

Categories
Football

PJ Fleck is a Tattletale, Crybaby, Narcissistic Loser

This week was signing week for high school athletes, so obviously this is one of the biggest weeks not just of the offseason, but of the entire year for college football coaches. Recruiting has always been cutthroat, and the best schools compete with each other for recruits. Why should it be any different in recruiting if it’s no love lost on the field? In case you missed it, PJ Fleck claimed that Wisconsin recruiters contacted two Minnesota recruits to try to get them to flip and used “negative recruiting” to do so.

WHAT DOES THAT EVEN MEAN??? Is negative recruiting just telling the truth? Since the biggest “look at me” guy in history took over at Minnesota, they haven’t accomplished jack shit. They play in arguably the weakest division of a power-five conference in the country (Big Ten West) and haven’t won it a single time in Fleck’s six years, what a joke. They are 3-3 against their biggest rival, and if you heard him talk, you would think they were 16-3, not 3-3. Oh wait, that’s the Badger’s record against the ground squirrels in the last 19 years. So if those mean messages just relayed a couple of facts and maybe mentioned that Madison is widely regarded as one of, if not the best, college towns in America, then I guess we are negative recruiting.

Trying to take a jab at Wisconsin is classic PJ Fleck behavior. It’s unclear what he wanted to get out of tattling to the media, he already got his contract extension. Congratulations to Minnesota for securing seven more years of mediocrity! When Paul Chryst led the Badgers to a 71-29 record, we moved on because we want to be great. When PJ Fleck “led” Minnesota to a 43-27 record, he was rewarded with a seven-year contract. Thank you University of Minnesota for guaranteeing Wisconsin fans seven more years of PJ fleck jokes.

Categories
Basketball

Steph Curry Did Not Ruin Basketball for The Common Man, it was James Harden

This might be the most “old man yelling into the void” thing I have ever put on the internet, but someone has to be this guy. The common thought is that Steph Curry is the NBA player most responsible for the change in the way that the way basketball is played in the NBA and all levels below, including casual pickup basketball. Certainly the Warriors popularized the three-pointer in mainstream culture, but analytics were being used throughout the league so the three was going to be the most coveted shot eventually, with or without the Warriors.

The thing is, the way that Steph Curry plays basketball is truly beautiful to watch, and if people actually played like Steph Curry, that would be everyone would be running around like crazy off the ball, both setting and using offball screen, and being unselfish. But if you have played more than three games of basketball in the past five years, you know that is not the reality. Instead the pickup game is now two to four people on a team who think they are better than everyone else isolating and dribbling the air out of the ball before taking a step-back three, and making it at about a nine percent clip. The worst part of that this turns the game into a one on one battle while eight other players stand and watch. That is quite the opposite of what Steph Curry does. However, this is how people see James Harden play in the highlights.

When Harden was in Houston, he had one of the highest usage rates in NBA history, and his pattneded between the legs dribble to stepback three combo became the most emulated move in basketball. Now everyone wants to make their defender look like Wesley Johnson slipping while trying to defend Harden.

Even though Harden was very ball dominant, he always made the right play and the right read. He was super creative in the pick and roll and an all-around great passer that would dish it off when he was doubled, and that clearly just isn’t happening in pickup games nowadays.

Another terrible thing that does not make sense is the “slow it down!” movement. If I grab a rebound or quickly inbound the ball to start a fastbreak, do not yell that at me if you want me to keep my sanity. Basketball is meant to be a fast-paced game, not 45 second possesions of some idiots trying to cross over their defender. Lets get out and run. Also defenders are more off balanced when backpedaling hard, so if you really want to bust someone’s ass, get out and run with me on the break.

Basketball is more fun for everyone when the ball is passed around every possesion and that’s just not happening anymore. We need to bring back Magic Johnson highlights, and make passing cool again. So if you’re a person who thinks that you’re good enough to not pass to your teammates and shoot 25%, be ashamed while watching Magic cook a bunch of plumbers.

Categories
Basketball

Nikola Jokic Put on a Clinic Yesterday

It was your typical NFL Sunday with crazy finishes, the Eagles winning and the Cowboys losing a game they probably should have won. But the most impressive performance yesterday came on the hardwood.

Nikola Jokic put up a mind-boggling stat line of 40-27-10 yesterday against the Hornets. He is coming off of back-to-back MVP seasons, and honestly, he probably deserves a third this year. There is no team that has a bigger drop-off when their star is off the floor than the Denver Nuggets, and this was evident last night. The offense runs as a well-oiled machine when he is on the court, where everyone knows their role, how to cut, and where to stand. When Jokic subs out, the machine gets jammed up when a washed-up DeAndre Jordan subs in and can’t even catch the ball on a pick-and-roll.

Jokic was getting whatever he wanted, but his go-to attack was catching the ball either at or above the free-throw line, facing up, and dominating Nick Richards or Mason Plumlee. Whether it was an easy mid-range, a power dribble to a spin, or just throwing his shoulder into his man and getting to the middle for his baby hook/floater, he was unstoppable.

The main reason I love watching Jokic play is that he makes it look so easy. He uses angles and smart positioning to get the easiest looks possible. My favorite play of his is when he is off-ball and finds himself underneath the basket. Most post players in that situation get out of the lane to get to the baseline dunker spot, or go and situate themselves on the block and look for a post touch, but not Jokic. He uses this as an advantage and gets the defender on his back and pins them right underneath the basket, and he has such soft hands, his teammates just have to put it within a few feet of his massive frame, and it will either be an easy layup, or the defender will be forced to foul.

Maybe the most impressive thing that Jokic has done is completely saving Aaron Gordon’s career. I would love to do a deep dive on how many of Gordon’s points this year are assisted by Jokic, it has to be around 60%. In the rare occasion where he is not on the court with Jokic, he looks lost when he tries to dribble or shoot, but with Jokic, he plays perfectly off of him and is great at positioning himself under the hoop for easy dump-offs from the MVP. Just do yourselves a favor and watch these highlights from last night, or if you have time and NBA league pass, the all-possessions recap, and see the difference between the Nuggets when Jokic is on and off the court.

Categories
Football

The Eagles are Even Scarier Than We Think

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of, if not the best, teams in the NFL this season, but their future is even brighter than the present. They will have Jalen Hurts under his rookie contract next year, so this offseason they can go out and keep their free agents or sign others. 

The really exciting thing for Eagles fans is that they have two first-round picks in this upcoming draft, including a pick from the Saints, which is projected to be in the top ten. They can either pick a top prospect or trade back for more picks and fill out their depth chart with young and talented players. An ESPN mock draft has Philly taking Bijan Robinson from Texas with the 5th overall pick. This seems like a bit of a reach, even for a sensational talent like Robinson, since running backs early have not worked out super well as of late. 

I think that the play is to trade that pick and get a later first-round picks and a few day-two picks (second and third round) and get pass rushers and offensive lineman. Miles Sanders is a free agent and coming off of a good year, he is in line to get a bigger contract in the offseason. Sanders is good, but with the Eagle’s scheme and O-line, you can have running back by committee. 

The Birds have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl this year, but next year they will be a once-in-a-decade type of juggernaut. Last time the Eagles had the formula of a QB on a rookie contract and an ultra-talented team around him, we remember how that went, ending in a Lombardi Trophy in 2018. 

Late edit: I just watched a breakdown of Bijan Robinson’s tape at Texas and might be talking myself into the Eagles picking him early. A truly generational talent. They could trade back into the middle of the first round and still be able to land the Longhorn Product.

A guy this shifty should not be allowed to run this angrily. Who hurt this man?
Categories
Baseball

The Brewers are Getting My Hopes up Again

As usual, in an offseason filled with huge signings, the Brewers are staying quiet in terms of signing marquee free agents, but are instead flying under the radar and making trades that are saving money and improving the team. 

The first big move they did was trading Hunter Renfroe to the Angels in exchange for 3 pitching prospects. At first, I questioned this move, as Renfroe was our best hitter by the end of the year in a lineup that lacked firepower. But the next moves that we made were pretty smart and I think made up for it. 

I’m going to nerd out a bit here and throw out some of the advanced analytics I’ve learned after a year as a baseball scout whose company does defensive metrics. 

Since we are the Brewers, what we do is develop pitchers. So I predict that one of the three we got from the Angels will pan out and be good for us. My guess would be Elvis Peguero. the 25-year-old reliever has made some serious strides in the past two years. From 2016-19, he was stuck in rookie ball, but since 2021, he has worked his way up the ranks quite quickly and found himself pitching a few games in the majors last year. He was underwhelming last year, but that was because he simply was not ready and was forced into that position by the struggling Angels who were just looking to get innings from anywhere they could and get out of the season. What excites me is his sinker, which averaged 96.5 MPH was also in the 93rd percentile of spin rate. He also saw his slider increase by two mph from 2021-2022, so he is only getting better. Relievers only need two pitches to dominate, so if we can get him to eat up the 7th or 8th inning consistently to set up Devin Williams, he can be a huge asset to the team. 

The next trade that we did was offloading Kolten Wong to the Mariners and getting Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker in return. Both had down years last year, but we saw what Winker could do in the NL Central while he was with the Reds. In 2017-2021 with the team, he had a .888 OPS with a 129 OPS+ (29% better than the league average) primarily against right-handed pitching, which in the MLB is a majority of the pitchers you will be facing. Even in his down-season last year, he still had a 103 OPS+, which is still better than the league average. I’m not big on Toro, but he is another piece to be able to throw in the lineup. Wong was a big name for the Brewers to sign, but he has not been great for the Brewers since he signed. 

One of the biggest reasons I love the Brewers’ outlook for next season is not because of a player that we signed, but because of a rule change. The shift is being banned, so now two infielders must be on each side of the infield. The Brewers had two players in the top 18 of players who had the most hits taken away by the shift. Tyrone Taylor had nine hits taken away, while Rowdy Tellez was second in the league with 15 hits taken away by the shift. Winker is also a player who was heavily shifted against, so this rule change should provide a little spark to the offense. Shoutout my company, Sports Info Solutions, for that data. I helped collect those numbers so also shoutout me (and whoever audited my games and fixed my mistakes after the first few games I did).

Another reason why I was not super beat up about losing Wong is that we were able to replace him at second base with Toro, and Owen Miller from the Guardians, who can also play 1st and 3rd at an above-average clip. Miller has shown flashes on offense, but will mostly be in the lineup for his 90th-percentile sprint speed and 91st-percentile OAA (outs above average). Miller provides great flexibility in the lineup as a right-handed bat that can play first base and give Rowdy some time off when we face tough lefties. 

Of course, we sill have to lean on our pitching and hope that we can stay healthy this season and that Aaron Ashby shows out after we locked him up on a team-friendly deal. Once again, if Yelich returns to MVP form, we will be immediate title contenders but based on recent history that most likely won’t happen. He is still a decent bat in the lineup, but let’s hope he can start to look like his 2018-2019 self.

Categories
Basketball Betting Football

$70 to $700: 12/12

If the object of this series was to go .500 every day, this would have been the best possible start. Sadly that is not the goal, and on Sunday I once again went .500, ending the day 2-2. Thanks in part to the + sign attached to the Mahomes prop, I ended up in the positive a few cents once again. I said that the Vikes Lions game had stink written all over it, and I of course took the bait. I also relied too heavily on a system where I said in my analysis “the Eagles might hit the over by themselves” and of course they did. I need to start trusting myself more, and that begins today.

Record: 10-10

Total: $70.95

  • Jimmy Butler O20.5 points: Since getting back from injury last week, Butler has been averaging 24.8 ppg, and he is coming off of a 30-point game against the Spurs. This is a favorable spot against a bad Pacers defense. I also think this might be one of the last times Butler’s line will be this low for quite some time.
  • Tyrese Haliburton O15.5 points + assists: Haliburton averages 11 assists per game, and this number is low because of some tough rebounding variance the past few games where he has just 5 rebounds in his past 3 games, I expect that to change tonight, he could also very easily rip off 16 assists as he is maybe the best passer in the league right now.
  • Rhomandre O77.5 Rush Yards: This is not as much of a bet on Rhomandre Stevenson as it is a bet against the Cardinals rush defense, which ranks dead last in the league in yards per game. It is a high total, but I think Belicheck tries to keep the ball on the ground and out of Mac Jones’s hands.
  • Mac Jones U32.5 pass attempts: I added this while writing the analysis on the Rhomandre bet. I’m not going to Eagles myself again.
Categories
Betting Football

$70 To $700: 12/11

I took yesterday off as the board was weird with load management so it was tough to find a lean. I’m back and better than ever today after (accidentally) staying above water on Friday. I accidentally bet Gobert over PRA instead of the under. The over hit easily which was a nice surprise, and then the night ended with a hot tip from my overtime hockey guy that gave me Vegas live ML. I ended up + a few cents after what I thought was a disaster of a night. 

I have a few plays in the NFL today based on some foolproof systems from the past decade or so, as well as a fun prop on a great QB.

Record: 8-8

Current Total: $70.65

  • Vikings +2: This line has stink written all over it, but I cannot pass up the opportunity to bet on a team that is 10-2 against the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell is a good motivator, but might not be the best in-game coach. I love getting 2 points here as this could easily be a game the Lions win by one on a last-second FG.
  • U46 Browns @Bengals: In the last 15 years, divisional games have gone under 61% after week 11. I love this under because Watson did not look sharp last week, and I doubt he lights it up this week against a solid Bengals defense in a big spot for the Browns.
  • U44.5 Eagles @ Giants: Another divisional under here. The Giants luck has been running out as of late, mostly due to their plethora of injuries. The Eagles held the Titans to 10 points last week after Treylon Burks was injured. The Giants starting receivers seem like they have made up names, so the Eagles secondary should have no problems keeping them in check. My only worry here is that the Eagles score 45 on their own.
  • Patrick Mahomes O24.5 completions: The Chiefs are taking on the Broncos, and should have no problem handling this game. They are not a ground-and-pound team, so I think the way they control this game is with short passes. At plus money, this bet is too good to ignore. 
Categories
Basketball Betting

$70 To $700: 12/9

A couple of bad beats last night. Zubac with 9 first-half points couldn’t buy a pass from his selfish-ass teammates in the second half to get the 10 he needed. On the wrong side of the Baker Mayfield miracle game. The Raiders had so many different ways they could have put that game away. Sengun over points was almost a loser as well. He had 14, had one of the most unbelievable poster dunks I have ever seen but it was terribly called an offensive foul. Next possession he gets called for a travel when he did not even have control of the ball and gets so frustrated he gets taken out of the game in the middle of the third quarter and didn’t even get back in until garbage time where he barely squeaked a layup in to salvage tonight. S/O Cam Akers for fumbling or else he would have easily gone over. Kyren Williams got a lot of the second-half work because of the fumble which saved my ass. Dame took over in that game which was a great omen for Simons under points, which hit easily, but after 12 first quarter points, Jerami Grant ended up with 18 which had us end up 3-3 on the night. Staying above water night one, and a few bad beats. I’m fired up for the slate tonight. Gonna stick to just one play for each team at max from now on. 

Starting Balance: $70.07

Record:3-3

Tonights Plays:

  • Giannis O30.5 points: 8 straight games with 30+ points for Giannis, and I do not expect it to stop against the Mavericks tonight. Last time they played Giannis still had 30 even in just 27 minutes. This game should be closer (unless Grayson Allen hits 7 threes again) which should allow more opportunities for Giannis.
  • Scottie Barnes O28.5 points, rebounds, assists: Barnes is playing a lot better as of late, and this number has hit four of his last five. The Magic are still banged up and Barnes should be a beneficiary of this.
  • Mason Plumlee U23.5 PRA: The Knicks and Mitch Robinson have always kept Plumlee in check, as this number is 7-1 in Plumlee’s last 8 against the Knicks.
  • Zion O7.5 rebounds: As of late, Zion is looking much healthier, and this is 4-1 in his last 5 games. Ayton will most likely be guarding Valančiūnas, leaving a smaller matchup for Zion, where he should be a monster on the boards.
  • Anthony Davis U39.5 PRA: Davis was playing like an MVP before he exited his last game with flu like symptoms. Who knows how healthy AD is, and Embiid has kept AD in check, holding him to 23, 12 and 2. This number may not seem high, but could still hit with AD Having 25, 10 and 4, so I like this spot.
  • Kyrie Irving O23.5 points: This is a total spot play against the Hawks. Dejounte Murray is out for a few weeks, and he would normally be tasked with Kyrie, so the controversial guard should be able to feast on a depleted backcourt. Recently, Kyrie has been getting a ton of 4th quarter points, so maybe monitor this one around halftime and find some value and take his second-half points over if he was off to a cold start in the first.
  • Rudy Gobert U30.5 PRA: Gobert has really struggled this year, and even without KAT in the lineup, his numbers have not been great, averaging just 10 and 9.
  • Jaden Ivy U14.5 points: Ivey has seen a decrease in minutes since Bojan Bogdanovic returned a week or so ago, and Ivey will have a tough matchup against the Grizzlies. In his last 6 he is averaging just 12 points, which includes a 10-point output against the Grizzlies just 5 days ago.
  • Grambling @Vandy U138: My first college basketball play thanks to my good friend Chris. He is great at finding value in games like this. In Chris’s words “Grambling’s offense stinks (333 in efficiency) and Vandy shuts down low majors. Vandy’s offense is also inconsistent. Vandy has only given up 3 times, and all of those were to teams that were better than themselves.”
Categories
Basketball Betting

$70 To $700: 12/8

I’m just spitballing and trying something new here. I have always loved sports betting but never have been careful about tracking my bets, and always end up doing something dumb. This $70 to $700 series is to hold myself accountable so I stop wasting all of my accounts on “fuck it” bets where I end up draining my account. I will do research on these picks before games start that way I’m not just looking at the board five minutes before a game starts and just betting on a number that I think I like. These will be heavily props mostly with a few sides and game totals sprinkled in periodically. Props just seem to be a bit more transparent and less variable. These are not advice and betting is not guaranteed money, so either tail or fade my dumbass, but do so responsibly.

It’s a small NBA board tonight with yet another stinky Thursday night NFL game. However, I think there is value on the board tonight, with these six picks.

Start of the Day Total: $71.77

  • Anfernee Simons U22.5 Points: 5 to win 9.65: Simons has been great this year, but Lillard is back from injury, so Simons won’t have the ball in his hands as much tonight. In games with Lillard, he is averaging 21.1 points, as opposed to 29 in games without Lillard. The Nuggets defense isn’t great, but I expect Lillard and the forwards to benefit more from this than Simons.
  • Jerami Grant O20.5 points: A bad Nuggets defense should allow Grant to flourish even with Lillard in the lineup. This season with Lillard his average is a bit below the 20 ppg mark, but in the game on the 4th against the Pacers with Lillard, he had 28 and a green light as he put up 10 threes and 21 shots overall.
  • Alperen Sengun O 14.5 Points: This is a total spot play. The Spurs are the very worst defense in the league this year and are super banged up. Jeremy Sochan and Jakob Poetl are both out tonight, leaving (checks notes)…. Zach Collins to defend the talented young big man. The Rockets aren’t great either on the defensive side, so this should be a high-scoring affair.
  • Raiders -6.5 (-125): I bought the .5 point here just to be safe, but the Rams are a disaster this season, and now they do not have a quarterback. Whether this is John Wolford, Sam Perkins or Baker Mayfield at the helm for the Rams, they will not have a competent offense and are missing Aaron Donald on defense, so I could see this game maybe even being a blowout in favor of the Raiders.
  • Cam Akers U45.5 rush yards: Another bet against the Rams. They might not be able to throw the ball, but that does not mean they can run either. They are last in the league in rush yards per game, and Kyren Williams will also be stealing carries from Akers. The Raiders also have a top-10 defense against the rush against a bad Rams O-line, so this could go way under.
  • Ivica Zubac O9.5 Points: My last play of the day is going to be on Zubac. Since his 31 and 29 game a few weeks back, Ty Lue has trusted him more on offense. Kawhi is resting tonight, so his shots will be dispersed. In his last ten games, Zubac is averaging 12.4 points.